Home sales in Metro Vancouver dropped by 3.8% in September compared to the same time last year, indicating that lower borrowing costs haven't significantly boosted demand yet.
According to Greater Vancouver REALTORS®, there were 1,852 homes sold in September 2024, down from 1,926 in September 2023. This figure is also 26% below the 10-year average for this time of year, which is typically around 2,502 sales.
In September 2024, 6,144 new detached, attached, and apartment properties were listed for sale in Metro Vancouver, which is 12.8% more than the 5,446 listings from the same month last year. This is also 16.7% higher than the 10-year average for this time of year, which is 5,266 listings.
Currently, there are 14,932 properties available for sale, a 31.2% increase from September 2023, when there were 11,382 properties on the market. This is also 24.2% higher than the 10-year average, which is typically 12,027 listings.
The ratio of sales to active listings in September 2024 is 12.8%. For detached homes, the ratio is 9.1%, for attached homes it's 16.9%, and for apartments, it's 14.6%. This ratio helps measure how quickly homes are selling.
Historical data suggests that sustained ratios below 12% exert downward pressure on home prices, while those exceeding 20% over several months typically lead to upward price trends.
“With some buyers choosing to stay on the sidelines, inventory levels have sustained the healthy gains achieved over the course of this year, providing much more selection to anyone searching for a home,” Lis said. “With all this choice available, prices have trended sideways for the past few months. The September figures, however, are now showing modest declines across all segments on a month over month basis. This downward pressure on prices is a result of sales not keeping pace with the number of newly listed properties coming to market, which has now put the overall market on the cusp of a buyers’ market. With two more policy rate decisions to go this year, and all signs pointing to further reductions, it’s not inconceivable that demand may still pick up later this fall should buyers step off the sidelines.”
The average price for homes in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,179,700, which is 1.8% lower than in September 2023 and 1.4% lower than last month in August 2024.
For detached homes, 516 were sold in September 2024, which is a 9.8% drop from the 572 sold in September 2023. The average price for a detached home is $2,022,200, up 0.5% from last year, but down 1.3% from August.
For apartments, 940 were sold in September 2024, down 4.9% compared to 988 sold in September 2023. The average price of an apartment is $762,000, 0.8% lower than both last year and the previous month.
Attached home sales (like townhouses) rose 7.4% from 352 in September 2023 to 378 in September 2024. The average price for a townhouse is $1,099,200, down 0.5% from last year and down 1.8% from August.
The Take Away:
The general consensus from many in our industry is that buyers are now waiting to see how low the rates can go; couple this with a traditional slowdown in the winter months for sales and it is expected to be a fairly quiet winter as far as sales goes.... HOWEVER. There is also the expectation that with possibly 2 more rate cuts, the traditionally busier spring market may be pretty explosive.
Buyers may want to go shopping in the winter to avoid this possible rush of activity and maintain a position that is stronger to negotiate from.
Sellers may want to hold off on listing their home, enjoy it over the winter holiday season and prepare it for a spring market that may yield them more money to sell then.
If you would like to have to some real world advice about how to navigate the current market and plan for the future call or text me at 604-522-4777 or e-mail directly at: haze@hazerealty.com or join us at our Facebook Page (www.facebook.com/HazeRealty) and we see what the best move can be.